Posted: 09/04/2017
Read and comment on the workshop report here belowWorkshop report :The world evolves within an economic transition period where the Western neoliberal model is challenged by increasing systemic risks (including among others resource scarcity and decrease of defense expenditures) that could lead to the obsolescence of the existing international regulation tools.Key insights Emergence of a alternative/non-western economic models Technology could solve the energy and resource issues......But protectionism in policies and markets might smother thetechnological benefits. Global Trends in EconomicsThe world has entered in 2008 a period of great uncertainty and economic and financial instability that still has tremendous consequences. It is becoming more and more obvious that the global economy growth is unstable, mostly due to the economic growth in the U.S, but also to the uncertainty of the Eurozone and China. In addition, the Greek crisis suggests a marked slowdown in growth in the still unpredictable consequences for the security of the world. The relative decline of the United States is also reflected in the rise in power of new actors such as BRICs seeking to impose a new economic order whereas their own economy may not be as valid as it seems. This may lead to an acceleration of the transition away from the current economic and financial paradigm and eventually would amount to questioning the global economic and financial regulation bodies. In the end, despite a sustainable slowdown, the global economic growth will probably reduce poverty but also could lead to an increase in inequality - between countries and within countries - and resulting social unrest. Resource scarcity Global warming, potentially generating more frequent and more extensive natural disasters, seems inevitable despite the awareness and mobilization of countries at the international level. These issues will probably remain highly politicized and sources of cleavage, particularly between developed and developing countries. Under the combined effect of the increase in demand and environmental degradation, access to natural resources along with natural resource scarcity will be a major challenge facing humanity.The global demand for agricultural and food a product is likely to increase drastically in the coming years, while at the same time natural resources are dwindling. Global food security should depend increasingly on the ability of states to engage in cooperative strategies. Food crises and water could contribute to exacerbate crises shifting to conflicts between or within states. In terms of industrial and environmental issues, the changes in lifestyle and consumption will become a crucial issue for the future of the planet and the security of states. As a matter of fact, energy transition is never "soft": geopolitical tensions appear along with natural resource scarcity: water, energy, food. Even if the accelerated advances in science and technology will bring efficient solutions to global issues such as resource scarcity, the political and economic relations, based on self-benefits instead of global interest, will limit their positive impact. Even if the accelerated advances in science and technology will bring efficient solutions to global issues such as resource scarcity, the political and economic relations, based on self-benefits instead of global interest, will limit their positive impact. True Cost Economics When evaluating any specific strategy, policy, acquisition, or operational plan, it is helpful to think in terms of total true cost. True cost includes not only the financial cost, but also the ecological cost and the social cost. Specific operations, especially those that fail, create huge social costs including illegal refugees. Defense expenditures Public opinions in the Western countries are not prepared to accept an increase in defense budgets in a context of latent economic crisis. Meanwhile, the military expenditures are steadily growing in Asia, in Africa and in the Middle East.This trend will continue in the future, thus not only compromising the military capabilities, but also increasing the military gap between the Western countries and emerging countries, but also among NATO Nations.The opinions expressed in this forum don't constitute NATO or any other organization points of view.