Posted: 09/04/2017
Read and comment on the workshop report here belowWorkshop report :In the thirty upcoming years, humanity will experience significant demographic shifts ranging from population increase of over 25 %, aging, deepening imbalance male/female, fast growing urbanization and regional and transcontinental migrations that may threaten territories.Key InsightsSignificant increase of population growth, demographic shifts and migration. Tremendous strains on resources and institutions.Challenges to the existing social contract by a disillusioned, mobilizedcitizenryThe defense and security efforts prioritize non-kinetic actions over warfightingThe impactful structures and institutions will be those that will be Organized into dynamic, flexible, innovative and problem solving networks. Demography Whatever the assumptions, the world population is expected to reach 9 billion people by 2040. However, this strong increase hides very strong regional disparities: Africa and Asia are likely to increase their population dramatically faster than everywhere else, what could be a new source of tensions and imbalances. In addition, the world population is aging, and this phenomenon affects all continents. This could, in particular in developed countries, dig the demographic deficits, increase government spending, and ultimately have a significant impact on social systems. In other countries, particularly China, this trend could curb economic development or weaken social balances. One significant change over the next 15 years in public health with respect to naturally occurring processes (e.g. excluding biological weaponization) is the increasing threat of antibiotic resistance in human pathogens. The spreading of infections and diseases that has been accelerated by the globalization and migrations could be a important challenge for humanity. One has only to consider the recent Ebola outbreak to understand the consequences of ignoring diseases that are not currently first world problems. Migration and Society Resilience Migration is connected with economy, education, family, health, justice, society and climate change. The threats of poverty, infectious disease, and environmental degradation, inter-state conflict, civil war, genocide, and other atrocities will continue to be the main drivers for migration. Management of international borders has changed radically during the past years both in terms of the demographic challenges posed by mass movements of asylum seekers and their exploitation by ruthless traffickers. In an ever more complex world this mix is expected to increase both numerically and in complexity during the coming years. National resilience reflects society"s sustainability referring to the ability to maintain national social fabric and cohesion when confronted by any kind of threat. It is closely related with vision and values shared at the level of the nation. As today a nation cannot be easily defined geographically, unifying people or communities will require systematic effort. Having an impact on what values citizens are willing to stand for, with whom they see themselves to be connected and what they believe to be the essence of society and nation, comprehensive nation-building projects will have important consequences in terms of national security, and also in terms of social welfare and national culture. On the other hand, immigrant newcomers may feel pushed into tight sub- communities of shared fate, cultural beliefs and customs. However, the set of such resilient communities do not equal automatically to a resilient nation. Excluded or un-integrated sub-communities may prove to be very resilient for themselves but not for the nation. Instead, there will always be a hidden potential to social unrest in expanded societies where ethnic-, religion- or culture-based fragmentation has appeared, especially in the Western societies where identities and cultures may coexist as long as there is a will of sharing values and causes. People"s increasing Influence Online networking and communication is continuously increasing people"s regional and global impact. No product, initiative, structure or policy will achievefull success without the support of people. This drives a shift in focus for all relevant actor towards engaging with, adapting to and getting support from the populace. This will significantly affect industry, commerce, business, politics and security.The opinions expressed in this forum don't constitute NATO or any other organization points of view.